This paper analyzes the effects of dividend tax reforms on tax revenues, income shifting, and earnings retention. It examines two significant policy changes in Israel during the 2010s. Using administrative tax records, we study a permanent five-percentage point increase in the dividend tax rate in 2012, and a temporary tax relief enacted in 2017. The permanent tax hike triggered an immediate surge of over 100% in reported dividend income and tax revenues. It did not generate a lasting shift in dividend flows. In contrast, the temporary relief of 2017 led to a sharp decline in dividend payments upon its expiration. Notably, firms increased earnings retention after the preferential rate ended, potentially anticipating similar future relief. We also find evidence of income shifting via wage-to-dividend conversions for tax planning. Finally, increased earnings retention after 2017 produced a 1- 2 percentage point downward bias in the top 1% income share due to unreported dividend income.
Research
When Deterrence Backfires: House Demolitions, Palestinian Radicalization, and Israeli Fatalities”. Journal of Conflict Resolution 67 (7) : 1592-1617.Abstract
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Cronyism in State Violence: Evidence from Labor Repression During Argentina's Last Dictatorship”. Journal of the European Economic Association 19 (3) : 1439-1487.Abstract
. 2021. “
Defense and the Economy in Israel, 1990-2016”. In The Israeli Economy in the Last Twenty Years: Lights and Shadows in a Market Economy, New York: Cambridge University Press , p. 168-202.
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What Explains the Flow of Foreign Fighters to ISIS?”. Terrorism and Political Violence 32 (7) : 1458-1481.Abstract
. 2020. “
Party Hacks and True Believers: The Effect of Party Affiliation on Political Preferences”. Journal of Comparative Economics 47 ( 3) : 504-524.Abstract
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On Public Opinion Polls and Voters' Turnout”. Journal of Public Economic Theory 20 (2) : 239-256.Abstract
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Is Centralization a Solution to the Soft Budget Constraint Problem?”. European Journal of Political Economy 45 (1) : 57-75.Abstract
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The Long-Run Effect of 9/11: Terrorism, Backlash, and the Assimilation of Muslim Immigrants in the West”. Economic Journal 126 (597) : 2064-2114.Abstract
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Can Militants use Violence to Win Public Support? Evidence from the Second Intifada”. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 59 (3) : 528-549.Abstract
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Counter-Suicide-Terrorism: Evidence from House Demolitions”. Journal of Politics 77 (1) : 27-43.Abstract
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