Citation:
Abstract:
This article examines the journalistic production of mediated political projections—media narratives about uncertain political futures, such as anticipated election outcomes and their implications. Despite the significance of prospective coverage in political journalism and its influence on political decision-making, there is limited understanding of journalists’ perceptions and textual expressions of political forecasting. Drawing on interviews with Israeli journalists and a computational text analysis of election coverage in France, Israel, and the U.S., this study aims to understand how journalists perceive, negotiate, and textually navigate political forecasting in their work—whether through their own projections or by mediating forecasts made by others. The findings reveal journalists’ deep ambivalence toward political forecasting and the resulting textual practices. We show how journalists attribute their engagement in forecasting to external pressures, while their reluctance stems from the inherent risks and challenges associated with political forecasting and its tension with their journalistic identity and professional values. To navigate this tension, they incorporate projections into conventional factual reporting or use non-committal language. Except in data journalism, assessing the likelihood of political scenarios is uncommon. Although these patterns are observed across countries and media types, prospective coverage is more prevalent in interventionist and accommodative journalistic cultures, with the rhetoric of facticity and certitude more common in broadcast news. We suggest that journalists’ reluctance to fully engage with the inherent uncertainties of political futures limits their ability to contribute effectively to public decision-making processes as societies navigate political futures.