Citation:
Abstract:
In orienting themselves to the future, people form expectations not only on what will happen but also on how they will feel about possible future occurrences. So far, such affective forecasting – the prediction of future feelings – has been studied mainly from a psychological perspective. This study aims to show the importance of a socio-communicative perspective for understanding the predictors, manifestations, and consequences of affective forecasting, especially when collective futures are at stake. Using the case study of the 2019-2021 Israeli elections and a combination of a twelve-wave survey and twenty-five focus groups, we show how political affective forecasts are associated with socio-communicative factors, are used in social interactions, and drive political polarization and participation. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of our findings for future research on affective forecasting in communication studies.